A Tale of Two Paths: The Future of China
China's future as an economic powerhouse has broad implications for global growth, geopolitics, and financial markets.
Testing the pace of China's economic growth
New research in Vanguard's Megatrends series finds that, in our base case scenario, China's economy becomes more consumption-oriented - and the world's largest after mid-century.
Slowing global trade: What investors need to know
Vanguard expects global trade growth to slow - not contract - in coming years, with only modest investor implications.
Inflation beyond the current spike
The risk of persistently higher inflation is not fully anticipated by either the financial markets or U.S. Federal Reserve forecasts.
Market and economic environments and their potential influence on asset allocation
A market and economic state-based, time-varying asset allocation is suitable for investors willing to take on risk.
The inflation machine: How it works and where it's going
Vanguard's baseline scenario using our state-of-the-art inflation forecast model is for a year-end 2022 core Consumer Price Index rate of 2.6%.
Vanguard economic and market update - September 2021
A resurgence in COVID-19 cases and extended lockdowns have led us to lower our full-year growth forecast for Australia, with risks skewed to the downside.
Why market forecasts matter to long-term investors
The way markets rebounded from the global financial crisis can serve as a valuable lesson for the decade ahead. We believe that today's high U.S. equity valuations mean investors shouldn't expect the last decade's strong returns to persist.
Vanguard economic and market update - August 2021
The Delta variant continues to spread, prompting a downgrade in our growth outlooks for Australia and China, where further lockdowns have been implemented.
Why economic recoveries vary around the world
Differences in consumption demand partly explain why economic recoveries from the pandemic in the United States, the United Kingdom, the euro area, and China won't look alike.
Active Fixed Income Perspectives: Q3 2021
Vanguard Active Fixed Income Perspectives is our quarterly in-depth commentary. It offers a sector-by-sector analysis and a summary of how those views affect the Vanguard active bond funds.
Vanguard economic and market update - July 2021
The path to economic recovery will likely be uneven and varied across industries and regions, with countries that have vaccinated greater proportions of their populations driving global growth.
New business models in banking bring new credit risks
Vanguard's credit team weighs the effects of lower-for-longer rates, sees most value in U.S. and Australian banks.
A midyear update on our economic and market outlook
Vanguard's mid-2021 update on the economy and markets looks at how differences in vaccination rates and varied levels of fiscal support are likely to produce uneven economic growth.
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